Quoted
“30-year-old billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried has been called the next Warren Buffett. His counterintuitive investment strategy will either build him an empire—or end in disaster” — cover of Fortune magazine
Facts & Figures
116 degrees — the new All-Time highest temperature for downtown Sacramento, recorded on September 6, 2022. The old record was 114 on July 17, 1925. Records there date to 1877.
101 years — the difference in birth years between the first prime minister to serve under Queen Elizabeth II (Winston Churchill, born in 1874) and the last (Liz Truss, born in 1975)
74% — the approximate decline in market value of the 40-year U.K. government bond from its recent peak in December 2021 through September 27, 2022. (It subsequently bounced ~10 points as of this writing as the yield fell from ~4.7% to 3.5% when the BOE stepped in to purchase bonds and stabilize — stabilise — the market.)
Books
How the World Really Works — This is the latest book from prolific scientist-author Vaclav Smil. It’s a whirlwind tour of myriad subjects (energy, food production, globalization, the environment, etc.) and it is packed with data and facts. (I have no doubt there is room to quibble with some aspects, but Smil is thorough and uncompromising in his research, as far as I can tell.) There is plenty of valuable perspective here, presented mostly without editorialization.
The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization — I tend to agree with some of the main ideas of this book. Globalization is not a force of nature; development + demographics + Pax Americana created a virtuous feedback loop for 70+ years; geography and demographics are hugely important; shrinking populations are not a feature that can be handled by most or all economic systems; a massive earthquake is shaking the foundations of many globally important systems at once, and the next decade or two is going to feature a lot of change. But as an “explanation of everything” book I found it lacking, especially as compared to Smil’s effort above, for example, and I found at least a few factual mistakes. I did not care for the style (the “irreverent humor” was more distracting or cringe-inducing than anything else) and the predictive value seems close to zero. Declarative statements abound (“2019 was the last great year for the global economy” and “the 2020s will see a collapse of consumption and production and investment and trade almost everywhere”) but seem designed to drum up consulting/speaking engagements more than anything else. In any case, the issues here are worth exploring and thinking about, if not here then elsewhere.
Articles
Why the Mighty Miss: The Blinds Spots of Power — This essay in Foreign Affairs ($) has a good mix of history and psychology. “[W]ealthy people’s status can lead them to believe that their own needs and desires are more important than any rules, so much so that they absolve themselves from complying with the rules altogether. A similar phenomenon exists in international relations. The leaders of powerful states who are the creators, enforcers, and beneficiaries of rules are often tempted to break them.”
Hockey Lessons for Disclosing Pay at Work — “As states enact transparency laws, the NHL shows that knowing your coworkers’ salaries can warp your view of success.” This article looks at the changes in player behavior among hockey players when a newspaper article in 1990 disclosed pay levels for the first time. Players who were paid less than their peers were found by a study to sacrifice defense in favor of offense (presumably since offense is more easily measured and thus more heavily compensated) at the expense of team success.
The Dangerous Decade — This essay ($) is in a somewhat similar vein to the deglobalization book mentioned above.
Hurricane Hugo: The Hurricane Hunters’ Wildest Ride — I had never read this account of a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and wow…this is white-knuckle to the extreme. A flight through the eyewall at 1,500 feet; 5.5 G’s up and 3.5 G’s down as extreme turbulence rocked the aircraft; damage to the interior of the aircraft and a fire in one engine; a 30-degree roll and dive that bottoms out just 880 feet above the ocean; and then a hairpin, wrong-direction turn that almost led back into the eyewall at an unsustainable altitude.
A video from the flight into Hurricane Ian and an accompanying article ($)
30 Years After Hurricane Andrew, Bermuda Reinsurers, Florida ‘Joined at the Hip’ and Hurricane Ian Is Latest Blow to Florida’s Struggling Home Insurers — Two articles looking at some of the insurance implications of big Florida hurricanes.